:Product: 1015RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 15/0558Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/2317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2846 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (16 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (17 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct). III. Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Oct 162 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 020/028-019/025-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/25 Minor Storm 40/25/05 Major-severe storm 20/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/15 Minor Storm 20/25/30 Major-severe storm 75/65/30