:Product: 1016RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (17 Oct, 18 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (19 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 15/2235Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 16/2023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3769 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (17 Oct, 18 Oct). III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct Class M 60/60/40 Class X 15/15/05 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Oct 161 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 162/165/155 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 154 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 014/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 019/025-013/016-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/35 Minor Storm 30/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 20/25/30 Major-severe storm 65/50/45