:Product: 1018RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 18/1439Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 18/0822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 18/0953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 700 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Oct, 20 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Oct). III. Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Oct 156 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 154 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 023/033 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 013/015-011/012-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/20 Minor Storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 50/50/25