:Product: 1019RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (20 Oct) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 19/1936Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 18/2324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 19/1654Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 443 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct). III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct Class M 25/20/20 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Oct 149 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 150/152/150 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 154 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 020/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 016/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 011/012-010/010-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/20 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 50/25/25