:Product: 1021RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 20/2247Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 381 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (22 Oct). III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 25/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Oct 133 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 154 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 009/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 25/20/10