:Product: 1022RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 21/2210Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/1757Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/2031Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 22/1030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 446 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Oct, 24 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (23 Oct). III. Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 10/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Oct 133 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 006/005-006/005-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/20 Minor Storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 25/20/30 Major-severe storm 20/10/25