:Product: 1105RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 05/1842Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/1817Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 05/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2289 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (06 Nov), unsettled to severe storm levels on day two (07 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (08 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov). III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov Class M 70/70/70 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Nov 147 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 014/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 023/038-043/076-018/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/40 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 60/65/65