:Product: 1106RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 06/1924Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at 06/0716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 06/0414Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 341 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (07 Nov), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (08 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov). III. Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov Class M 80/80/80 Class X 35/35/35 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Nov 163 Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 019/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 036/058 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 043/076-023/034-014/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/40/35 Minor Storm 35/30/15 Major-severe storm 35/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor Storm 15/20/25 Major-severe storm 79/65/50