:Product: 1109RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 670 km/s at 08/2100Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/1852Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/0354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1046 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Nov), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (11 Nov) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (12 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov). III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov Class M 70/70/70 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Nov 176 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 151 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 025/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 013/018-023/035-018/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/30 Minor Storm 30/40/35 Major-severe storm 15/30/25 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 65/79/80