:Product: 1110RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 09/2102Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/1228Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/2113Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 30 pfu at 10/1500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4275 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (11 Nov), unsettled to severe storm levels on day two (12 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (13 Nov). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (11 Nov), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (12 Nov) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 Nov). III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov Class M 75/75/75 Class X 35/35/35 Proton 99/50/35 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Nov 180 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 182/182/182 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 023/035-034/052-018/022 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/40 Minor Storm 40/35/30 Major-severe storm 30/35/10 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor Storm 15/15/25 Major-severe storm 79/85/65