:Product: 1112RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 969 km/s at 12/1946Z. Total IMF reached 61 nT at 12/0036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -55 nT at 11/2357Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1456 pfu at 12/0215Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 37 pfu at 12/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit appeared to be contaminated. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (13 Nov), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (14 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Nov). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (13 Nov), are expected to cross threshold on day two (14 Nov) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (15 Nov). III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov Class M 85/85/85 Class X 55/55/55 Proton 99/75/55 PCAF red IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Nov 163 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 113/144 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 059/097-016/022-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/35/20 Minor Storm 35/25/05 Major-severe storm 50/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 01/10/15 Minor Storm 10/30/25 Major-severe storm 90/55/25