:Product: 1114RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (15 Nov, 16 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (17 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 746 km/s at 13/2147Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/1405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 14/1704Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at 14/0950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 534 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (17 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (15 Nov), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Nov). III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov Class M 70/70/60 Class X 30/30/20 Proton 40/25/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Nov 145 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 145/135/130 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 043/059 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/008-011/015-017/022 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/40 Minor Storm 05/25/30 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 25/55/65