:Product: 1116RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (17 Nov) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (18 Nov) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (19 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 727 km/s at 16/0850Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 16/0519Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0422Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 555 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (18 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Nov). III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov Class M 55/20/10 Class X 15/01/01 Proton 10/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Nov 132 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 017/022-011/012-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/25 Minor Storm 30/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 65/45/35