:Product: 1117RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 618 km/s at 17/0641Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/0308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/0138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 829 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov). III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Nov 122 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 013/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 011/012-007/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor Storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 45/35/25