:Product: 1203RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Dec 03 2250 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 336 Issued at 2235Z on 03 Dec 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has reached strong storm levels in the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 03/0529Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 03/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 03/2034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8540 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at major to strong storm levels on day one (04 Dec), active to major storm levels on day two (05 Dec) and active levels on day three (06 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec). III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec Class M 75/75/75 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Dec 200 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 205/210/210 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 145 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 025/035-015/025-007/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/40 Minor Storm 40/40/30 Major-severe storm 25/25/10 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 15/20/20 Major-severe storm 79/79/70