:Product: 1209RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Dec 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 671 km/s at 09/1305Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/1250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1572 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (10 Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (11 Dec). III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec Class M 65/65/65 Class X 15/15/10 Proton 15/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Dec 183 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 180/175/160 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 036/055 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 013/009-007/009-011/014 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/35 Minor Storm 35/05/10 Major-severe storm 20/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/30 Major-severe storm 75/25/45