:Product: 1210RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Dec 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (11 Dec) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (12 Dec) and likely to be moderate on day three (13 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 10/2053Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 10/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 10/2046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2183 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Dec, 12 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (11 Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (12 Dec). III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec Class M 75/65/65 Class X 15/10/05 Proton 15/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Dec 168 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 007/009-011/014-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/40 Minor Storm 05/05/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 25/25/50