:Product: 0101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
31/2250Z from Region 3938 (N19W28). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (02 Jan,
03 Jan) and likely to be moderate on day three (04 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 01/0711Z. Total IMF
reached 25 nT at 01/1608Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-23 nT at 01/1623Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Jan, 03 Jan) and
quiet levels on day three (04 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (02 Jan, 03
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    80/75/70
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 219
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan 220/215/220
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 205

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  047/085
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  012/015-012/015-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/10
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/50/15
