:Product: 0102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/2141Z from Region 3936 (N13W84). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 02/0905Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 02/0936Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 02/1141Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 422 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Jan) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (03 Jan) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (04 Jan, 05
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    55/60/60
Class X    10/15/15
Proton     10/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 212
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan 215/215/210
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 204

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  048/126
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  010/012-014/018-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/65/60
