:Product: 0103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
03/1139Z from Region 3947 (N11E57). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (04 Jan,
05 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (06 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 03/0139Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 03/0959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
03/2030Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Jan, 05
Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jan,
05 Jan, 06 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    55/55/50
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 200
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 200/190/185
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 203

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  014/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  014/018-015/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    65/60/50
