:Product: 0104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
04/1248Z from Region 3947 (N09E41). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 716 km/s at 04/2026Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 04/1137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 04/0559Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 04/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    65/65/55
Class X    20/20/10
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 209
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 200/195/195
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 203

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  022/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  018/025-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/50/25
