:Product: 0105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
05/0239Z from Region 3947 (N11E29). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (06 Jan, 07 Jan)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (08 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 782 km/s at 05/0241Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 05/1652Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 05/1707Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 20 pfu at 05/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1067 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(06 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (07 Jan, 08 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    75/75/60
Class X    25/25/15
Proton     50/15/15
PCAF       Yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 169
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan 172/165/165
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 201

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  021/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  016/022-012/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           30/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    65/45/25
