:Product: 0106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
06/1624Z from Region 3947 (N11E16). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (07 Jan) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 06/1532Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 05/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/0328Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 05/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1508 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (09 Jan).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    70/65/60
Class X    25/20/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 172
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 165/165/170
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 201

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  012/012-009/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    55/25/10
