:Product: 0107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
07/0609Z from Region 3947 (N12E03). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (08 Jan) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 634 km/s at 07/0527Z. Total IMF reached 21
nT at 07/0831Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/0509Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3074 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    70/65/60
Class X    25/20/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 168
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 165/170/170
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 200

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  009/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10
