:Product: 0108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/2305Z from Region 3939 (S17W0*). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 07/2219Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 07/2247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/2234Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1624 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11
Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 160
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan 170/170/165
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 200

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  005/005-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25
