:Product: 0109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/0026Z from Region 3947 (N12W22). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (10 Jan,
11 Jan) and likely to be moderate on day three (12 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 09/1748Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 09/1333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
09/1432Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1519 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Jan, 11 Jan)
and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Jan). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (10 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/10/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 162
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 165/165/160
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 199

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  008/008-008/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/50
