:Product: 0111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M0 event observed at
10/2246Z from Region 3947 (N13W37). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 11/0845Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 11/1647Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/2113Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 256 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jan,
13 Jan, 14 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 156
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 150/145/145
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 198

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  007/006-006/006-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/25
