:Product: 0112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/1205Z from Region 3951 (S15W82). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 599 km/s at 12/0850Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
12/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
12/1313Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 354 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Jan,
14 Jan, 15 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 158
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan 150/145/145
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 198

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  006/006-007/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/30
