:Product: 0113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
13/0215Z from Region 3947 (N11W77). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (14 Jan, 15 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (16 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 13/1524Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 13/0546Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
13/0014Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 321 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Jan, 15 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    40/40/35
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 160
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 165/160/160
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 198

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  007/008-009/010-007/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/30/20
