:Product: 0115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/0856Z from Region 3961 (S09E58). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan,
18 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 15/0104Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 15/1039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 15/1515Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 900 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 174
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 180/190/190
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 198

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  007/008-007/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/30
