:Product: 0116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
16/0726Z from Region 3964 (N07W22). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 16/0147Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 16/0831Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/1847Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 593 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 208
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 210/210/215
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 198

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  012/015-011/012-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/50/25
