:Product: 0117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
17/1335Z from Region 3964 (N06W34). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19
Jan, 20 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 641 km/s at 17/2038Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 17/0508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 17/0514Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 764 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (18 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jan,
19 Jan, 20 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 227
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan 230/235/240
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 199

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  012/015-010/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/30/20
