:Product: 0118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
18/0058Z from Region 3964 (N06W47). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20
Jan, 21 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 715 km/s at 18/0035Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 17/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/2141Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 705 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan,
20 Jan, 21 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 222
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 225/230/235
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 199

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  010/010-009/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/25
