:Product: 0120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
20/1315Z from Region 3968 (S19W86). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 20/1857Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 20/0833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 20/0840Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1175 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Jan) and quiet levels on
days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 230
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan 225/225/225
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 201

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  017/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  011/012-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/20/20
