:Product: 0122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1108Z from Region 3961 (S10W35). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 22/0143Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 21/2203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0947Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1497 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Jan), quiet to active levels on day
two (24 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (25 Jan).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 214
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan 215/215/210
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 201

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  006/005-011/015-021/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/40
Minor Storm           05/20/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/60/65
