:Product: 0123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
23/0203Z from Region 3961 (S09W48). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 644 km/s at 22/2259Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 23/1610Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/1600Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1920 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jan), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (25 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (26 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 215
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan 215/215/210
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 201

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  007/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  011/015-021/030-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           20/30/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    60/75/45
