:Product: 0124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
24/1221Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 23/2334Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/2047Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 743 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (27
Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 205
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 205/205/200
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 201

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  021/030-014/015-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    75/45/20
