:Product: 0125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
25/0022Z from Region 3961 (S10W76). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 479 km/s at 24/2254Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/2139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
24/2112Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 902 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Jan) and quiet levels on
days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 182
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 175/170/160
90 Day Mean        25 Jan 200

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  014/010-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/20/20
