:Product: 0126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
26/1546Z from Region 3961 (S10W90). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (27 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 383 km/s at 26/0049Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 939 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (29 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    45/35/30
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 171
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 165/160/155
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 199

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  005/005-005/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/40
