:Product: 0128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
28/1945Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan,
31 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 28/0519Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 28/1859Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
28/1635Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 315 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jan 171
Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan 155/150/150
90 Day Mean        28 Jan 197

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  008/010-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/20
