:Product: 0129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/0408Z from Region 3977 (N19E53). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan,
01 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 365 km/s at 29/1300Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 29/0150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/0755Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 105 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (31 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 173
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb 170/170/165
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 196

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  006/005-009/010-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/30
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/40
