:Product: 0130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
30/1416Z from Region 3976 (N13E42). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and
likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day
three (02 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 367 km/s at 30/1911Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at
30/1803Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
30/1850Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    45/50/60
Class X    05/05/10
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 184
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 190/195/200
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 195

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  019/026-016/024-011/013

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/60/40
