:Product: 0131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
31/1406Z from Region 3976 (N13E28). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 31/2024Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 31/1734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
31/0926Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (03
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    55/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 207
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 210/215/220
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 195

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  017/024-011/013-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/25
