:Product: 0201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
01/1319Z from Region 3977 (N19E14). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 675 km/s at 01/1333Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 01/0026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 01/0028Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (02 Feb, 04 Feb)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Feb). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03
Feb, 04 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 188
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 190/195/195
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 194

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  013/014-010/010-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/30
Minor Storm           15/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/30/40
