:Product: 0202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
02/1404Z from Region 3977 (N19E00). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 01/2217Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 02/1735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 02/1405Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1653 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (03 Feb, 04 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Feb). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04
Feb, 05 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 216
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 215/215/215
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 194

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  021/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  017/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  012/014-013/018-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/45/30
