:Product: 0203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
03/0358Z from Region 3981 (N05E09). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 658 km/s at 03/0714Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
03/0212Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/2041Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 226 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (06 Feb).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 220
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 215/215/215
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 194

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  018/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  013/018-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/30/15
