:Product: 0205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0750Z from Region 3977 (N18W41). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07
Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 05/0749Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 05/2023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/1644Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 426 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Feb, 08
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Feb). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07
Feb, 08 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Feb 191
Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb 195/195/200
90 Day Mean        05 Feb 193

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  009/008-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/25
