:Product: 0206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
06/1104Z from Region 3981 (N08W31). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08
Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 06/1815Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 06/0402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/1156Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (09 Feb).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 188
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 185/185/190
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 192

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  010/012-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/15
