:Product: 0207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
07/0921Z from Region 3981 (N08W42). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09
Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 639 km/s at 07/0228Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
07/0111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
07/1314Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 174 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to active
levels on day two (09 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (10 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 182
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb  185/182/180
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 192

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  007/008-011/014-019/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/40
Minor Storm           05/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/40/65
