:Product: 0208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
08/0927Z from Region 3981 (N08W56). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 08/1816Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 08/1900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
08/0950Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Feb), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (10 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (11 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 173
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 175/175/185
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 191

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  011/014-019/025-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/60/60
